Why Goldman cut its recession odds

Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs’ chief economist, wrote in a research note released Tuesday that he and his colleagues are “substantially more optimistic than most other forecasters.”


Goldman Sachs’ recession outlook peaked at 35 percent in March due to stress on the banking system in the wake of the Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank collapses.


The banking giant has steadily lowered its recession odds throughout what it’s calling “soft landing summer.”


Hatzius is also increasingly optimistic the Federal Reserve may soon end its historic spate of interest rate hikes as inflation remains relatively low and the labor market cools.


But not everyone is as optimistic as Goldman Sachs, as the Bloomberg consensus odds of a recession remain at 60 percent.


Hatzius anticipates a “deceleration” in domestic GDP as student loan repayments resume and high mortgage rates hit the housing market as borrowing costs remain high.


Hatzius doesn’t anticipate interest rate cuts coming until the second quarter of 2024.


The Hill’s Taylor Giorno has the story here.

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